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World Silver Survey 2016 – Summary and View on gold and silver prices

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World Silver Survey 2016 – Summary and View on prices

Today is Sunday 8th May 2016 and we are reporting on the World Silver Survey 2016 produced for the Silver Institute by the GFMS Team at Thomson Reuters.

The Key facts are as follows:

• Mine production increased by 2% or 18 million oz. to 886.7 m
oz.
• Scrap supply fell 22 million oz.
• Industrial Fabrication demand fell 4% or 22.5 million oz. to
588.7 m oz.
• Over all physical demand rose by 39 million oz. or by 3% to
1,170.5 million oz.
• Demand for coins and bars rose by 24% to a total of 292.3
million oz. – mainly due to heavy buying from North America
and India.
• Jewellery demand rose to a record high of 226.5 million oz. up
2.5 million oz. on 2014
• There was an annual physical deficit of 129.8 million oz.
compared with a deficit of 78.6 million oz. the year before and
is the 3rd consecutive year of deficits.
• Silver prices averaged $15.68 in 2015 down 17.8% compared
to 2014.

We see for 2016 no fundamental demand reason for higher prices much beyond the $15 - $16 level, however we fully accept that worldwide negative interest rates, the uncertainty over the US Presidential election, the maintenance of a low US interest rate policy will edge both investors and speculators into gold and silver thereby maintaining a relatively high support level. How high can prices go is anyone’s guess, as much of its movement will now be based on fear and currency jitters.

We believe that $20 silver is unlikely, but possible and if it is reached, it will be momentary and it will eventually fall back to the $15-$16 range. $1350 gold again is possible with a $1400 ceiling, though again we envisage prices moving back towards the $1150 - $1250 level. We are now more neutral between gold and silver especially as silver has now caused the GSR or gold to silver ratio to fall to levels around 73:1

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