http://www.illuminatisilver.comToday is Saturday 28th November 2015 and we are asking the question will the solar industry (or Photovoltaics ) prove to be the saviour for Silver’s future?
Most listeners to this channel are aware that silver is an excellent conductor of electricity and heat, which makes it an essential input in the solar panel industry. Photovoltaics (PVs) are what form the backbone of a solar panel and these PVs use a fair amount of silver as a semiconductor.
According to pureenergies.com the following 12 countries had the highest installed capacity of solar PV power in 2014 and we quote it in this order: Germany 1st; followed by: China; Italy; Japan; United States; Spain; France; Australia; Belgium; United Kingdom; India; and the Czech Republic.
Now it’s China, the number 2 in the list we wish to draw to your attention.
On 17th November 2015 CNBC issued an article entitled: “ How a global solar drive will boost silver prices” and it quoted London-based Capital Economics’ - Simona Gambarini who said:
“While the solar industry just accounts for just 6 per cent of overall physical silver demand now, global solar capacity is growing at an average rate of 53 percent a year in the last decade, underscoring future growth potential. About 2.8 million ounces of silver are needed to generate one gigawatt of electrical capacity from solar energy. China is likely to account for about half of the growth in solar panel production in the next few years, she said. The country will also increase its installed solar capacity more than five times from 2014 to 2020.”
Now according to pureenergies.com China produced 18.3 GW of energy last year and if we use this figure as the base, an increase of 5 times 18.3 = 91.5 GW; having already mentioned that currently 2.8 million ounces of silver are necessary to produce each gigawatt, then we are looking by 2020 of a potential increased usage of some 205 million ounces of silver for China alone. With 2014 mine production standing at 844 million ounces and not expected to rise dramatically if at all for the next 5 years, this represents approximately 24% of likely mine supply.
We ask you to consider 5 main points
1. Silver is currently in a downtrend which is envisaged to continue for a little while yet.
2. Despite this potential growth, silver demand may be adversely affected by a reduction in demand from other sectors.
3. The level of silver used in solar panels have already been reduced in recent years and alternatives are being sought for by manufacturers
4. Much of this growth mentioned is centred on China and one has to be confident that it can continue with its growth model to obtain the targets it has set itself.
5. There are other energy sources being pursued in addition to solar which include wind, tidal and nuclear.
In conclusion, we have frequently stated that we are very bullish about the prospects for silver long term. Undoubtedly solar panel usage, in addition to other areas such as medical treatments and electronic gadgetry will form an increasing attraction to this industrial and precious metal. Our view is, that ‘black swans apart’ when we begin to see the World’s economies improve, we shall witness the up-trend in silver prices, something we are confident each of our listeners are looking forward to. Whether this dramatic demand will happen within 5 years we have our doubts, but our 10 – 20 year view remains as equally positive as it has always been.
Please view our more recent videos:
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https://youtu.be/LEOqy5Gn2r0China’s Economy Grows at the weakest rate since the global financial crisis in 2008
https://youtu.be/04nhmpBFN_YDemand for gold up and supply down according to the WGC November 2015
https://youtu.be/3ycCEG1hFroSilver demand down - Mine supply marginally up - Silver Institute Interim Report 2015
https://youtu.be/syRSk34-mQYGlencore an opportunity or too high a risk?
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