US Federal Reserve considered changing course on raising rates in 2016
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US Federal Reserve considered changing course on raising rates in 2016
Today is Thursday 18th February 2016 and we are briefly covering the minutes produced by the Federal Reserve earlier yesterday.
The minutes showed that members of the US Federal Reserve considered changing course on their plan to raise rates throughout 2016. They were worried that a global economic slowdown could hurt the US. They agreed that "uncertainty had increased" since the decision to raise interest rates in December.
Some members felt that tighter economic conditions would be "roughly equivalent" to further hikes. They were also concerned about the impact of a slowing China on Mexico and Canada, the two largest trading partners for the US.
Members of the Central Bank voted unanimously to raise the Fed's key interest rate by 25 basis points - to between 0.25% and 0.5% - in December. Since that decision, oil prices have continued to fall and global share markets have been highly volatile, though both picked up slightly in the last 48 hours.
The members agreed that it was too early to determine whether the data warranted changing course, but stated that they planned to continue to monitor the situation.
We stated that Yellen’s dovish tone meant that an interest rate rise in March was off the table, and these minutes show that the FED is perhaps going to delay them even further. We must not underestimate however the fact that their aim at present is to calm markets and so it is not surprising that they have adopted this stance. It’s now a question of wait and see how the economy develops, if it does at all. Interestingly, the IMF has forecasted the world’s economy to grow by 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. Many of our subscribers know that our attention is turned on China and increasingly to India as these shall be the bellwethers for world economic growth over the next few years.
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