http://illuminatisilver.comhttp://facebook.com/illumnatisilverTrade War with China is Possible but US likely to win
Today is Wednesday 18th January 2017 and we are commenting as to why we believe China may be in for a tough time under a Trump Presidency.
China's President Xi Jinping on his first visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland said that there are no winners when nations engage in a trade war and that there was "no point" in blaming economic globalisation for the world's problems, as financial crises were caused by the excessive pursuit of profits.
He pressed the case for free trade and said the world must "remain committed to promoting free trade and investment and that pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room. While wind and rain may be kept outside, so are light and air".
Donald Trump while on the campaign trail threatened a 12% import tax to make the Chinese "stop playing games" by consistently devaluing their currency, dumping products on international markets and attracting manufacturing jobs because of their cheap labour costs as a result of the lower Yen, and upped that proposal during his Presidential campaign to as much as 45% tax.
Mr Anthony Scaramucci, who will enter the White House on Friday as a senior adviser to the President, called the relationship with China "asymmetrical", and downplayed China’s ability to exact revenge on the US. He warned that if China chose to retaliate when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on imports, it would cost them "way more" than it would cost the United States.
Mr Navarro commented about China to PBS News Hour last August:
"The defining moment in American economic history is when Bill Clinton lobbied to get China into the World Trade Organisation. It was the worst political and economic mistake in American history in the last 100 years…..From 1947 to 2001, the American economy grew annually at a rate of 3.5%....After China got into the World Trade Organisation, got access to our markets and flooded our markets with its illegally subsidised exports, we grew at a rate of 1.8% from 2002 to 2015…..That's almost cut in half."
So it is clear to us that a President Trump will play hardball with China economically, without even having to mention what may happen with controversies surrounding Taiwan.
Although the figures have not as yet been fully published for 2016 our calculations based on the same method the Census calculates theirs, suggest that US exports to China will be similar to 2016 at $116 bn and its imports slightly lower at $466bn creating a deficit of $350bn; just shy of 2015’s record deficit – so China has far more to lose in a trade war than the US.
However the irony that Mr Scaramucci has announced the sale of a majority stake in his hedge fund -Skybridge Capital - for $12bn to China's HNA Group and Ron Transatlantic is not lost on us.
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