http://illuminatisilver.comhttp://facebook.com/illuminatisilverGold and Silver Update – w/e 21st July 2017
Today is Sunday 23rd July 2017 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 21st July.
Gold rose $25 last week from $1,229 to $1,254 having hit a high of $1,255 and a low of $1,228. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £965 that’s up £27, and in Euros it closed at 1,075 Euros that’s up 4 Euros on the week.
Silver rose 52 cents from $15.99 to $16.51 having hit a high of $16.52 and a low of $15.98. In sterling terms it closed at £12.70 that’s up 50 pence for the week and in Euros it closed at 14.15 euros that’s up 0.21 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell from 76.86:1 to 75.95:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 21,580 down 31 points on the day and down 57 points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 6,387 down 2 points on the day and up 75 points on the week.
Brent Crude fell 85 cents from $48.91 to $48.06 and US Light Crude fell 77 cents from $46.54 to $45.77
The dollar index stands at 93.58 that’s down 1.57 on the week.
Last week gold and silver prices rose quite strongly, fundamentally due to the pressure placed on the dollar, initially by the considerable rise in the Australian dollar and the Head of the ECB stating that the stimulus may be tapered in September, thereby enabling the Euro to rise significantly. In addition, US Treasury yields continued to fall, thereby making gold a more attractive option. Added to this we witnessed Trump’s failure to pass his Health care reforms and now some are questioning whether his tax and infrastructure spending bills will also fail. All of this adds to uncertainty in the value of the dollar and has given gold what we believe to be a temporary boost.
We do think that President Trump will get a tax cut Bill passed soon and achieve an increase in infrastructure spending, - after all these are 2 key planks of his election campaign. Nevertheless, while uncertainty dominates, and not forgetting the increasing pressure concerning the Russia collusion investigation, gold will remain underpinned and in our opinion stand at around $50 - $100 higher than it should.
This week, we have a number of key events which are likely to control and influence the direction of the gold market: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement on Wednesday, U.S. Durable Goods on Thursday and Advance GDP on Friday.
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, investors will be looking for clues in its monetary policy statement as to the timing of the next interest rate hike.
Core Durable Goods are expected to show a 0.4% increase, up slightly from the previous 0.3%. Advance GDP is expected to come in at 2.5%, up from the previous 1.4%.
So until these are out of the way and especially the FED’s decision and comments on Wednesday, we may indeed witness a little further strengthening in gold in the early part of the week.
Silver markets broke through the $16 resistance level and up towards $16.50. That’s an additional area that should continue to offer resistance, but we may initially see that level breached early in the week. We are confident that silver is merely reacting to the gold price rise and the weakness of the dollar, and its fate short term will lie in direct alignment with it.
Our overall assessment for gold and silver for the August period is lower prices, though we may well see a little further ‘tick up’ depending on what is announced on Wednesday. Of course the FED is not going to raise rates and will remain quite cautious. We believe it will confirm that there will be another rate rise this year (we suspect November or December) and this may allow the dollar to fall a little further short term, thereby strengthening gold and silver prices this week. That said, we are not convinced that the rally will hold for long and expect to see prices fall back again in August.
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