Vietnam, which is included in China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) geographical scope and has a great need for infrastructure investments, stands to benefit from the initiative.
According to the 2017 Global Infrastructure Outlook report published by the Global Infrastructure Hub, Vietnam’s need for infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2040 amounts to $605 billion. Notably, the gap between investment need and current trends of investment is a staggering $102 billion, meaning that Vietnam will have to actively seek different sources of funding to cover the gap. Vietnam has therefore endorsed the BRI as it may become an important source of funding that Hanoi may want to tap in the future.
During President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi in November 2017, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on promoting connections between the “Two Corridors, One Belt” framework (TCOB) and the BRI. The signing of the MOU, however, does not guarantee that the BRI will see breakthroughs in Vietnam in the foreseeable future.
In fact, apart from some statements welcoming the BRI and proposing principles for its implementation, Vietnam’s reactions to the initiative have remained ambivalent. So far, no new infrastructure projects in Vietnam have been officially labelled as BRI-funded, except for an additional loan of $250 million for the Cat Linh – Ha Dong metro line in Hanoi that has been quietly and unofficially classified as such by both sides. This attitude in Hanoi can be explained by three major factors.
Firstly, Vietnam is generally cautious about the initiative’s implications for the country. It took the two countries two years to negotiate the MOU, implying that the two sides had some disagreements on its content. The title of the MOU, which highlights the promotion of connections between the two initiatives, is also noteworthy, as it implies that the TCOB is treated as a separate plan and that Vietnam is unwilling to brand it as part of the BRI, at least not publicly.
Such reservations are understandable given the lingering distrust between the two countries due to disputes in the South China Sea (known as the East Sea in Vietnam). At an official level, Vietnam’s emphasis of such principles as consensus, equality, mutual respect, and compliance with the UN Charter and international law in the implementation of the BRI implies that Vietnam is being cautious about the BRI’s implications.
Some Vietnamese scholars have also expressed concerns that the BRI has “implications that transcend economics.” At an international conference held in Hanoi in October 2017 on the opportunities and challenges presented by the BRI, they warned that Vietnam’s participation in the initiative may lead to its “excessive dependence” on China, and even harm its territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea. They also highlighted other concerns, such as insufficient protection of labour rights, Chinese firms’ poor environmental record, lack of transparency and China’s challenging of internationally recognised dispute settlement mechanisms. As such, they recommended that Vietnam and other countries look beyond mere economic gains when considering participation in the BRI.
Secondly, as some Vietnamese scholars have pointed out, getting Chinese loans is neither...
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