http://www.illuminatisilver.comToday is Thursday 19th November 2015 and we are covering World Gold Council’s Report on Gold Demand Trends and reactions to it.
Global gold demand rose 8% year-over-year in Q3, while global investment demand rose 27%. On the retail side, gold coin and bar demand in the U.S. rose 207%, its highest level in five years.
Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research for the WGC, told Kitco News “We do think there are good signals in the long run for the demand and for the balance of demand and supply in the market.” He also added; “Interestingly enough, central banks this quarter had a very strong performance. It was actually the second-strongest net buying that has occurred.”
On the issue of supply he stated; “The reality is that from the supply side, it's not only mine production, it's a combination of mine production and recycling, and that, overall, has been fairly constrained …… We expect mine production to taper off over the next year or two.”
So what is our view, the Gold Council predicts slightly rising demand and a small reduction in supply, yet analysts are predicting further price falls. We can sum it up quite simply – “The dollar and interest rates”. Yes gold has in our opinion now become a ‘dollar and interest rate play’. The basic fundamentals of the metal are reasonably straightforward. World political events seem to have only a temporary and small impact on prices. Supply is curbed for the foreseeable future, and so gold as a monetary metal/investment is now subject to the whim of the traders and confidence of the investors.
As the dollar strengthens, the price of gold in dollars is likely to decline. Should the economy be seen to pick up and interest rates are raised, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes greater or more expensive and therefore its price will probably decline. If however, we see no rising of interest rates and a falling dollar value, then this is likely to be bullish for gold. We believe that gold will fall close to, or slightly below, $1000. $950 is not impossible. However it being then close to the cost of production/extraction for most firms, it then lends itself to be a cheap commodity to purchase for the medium to long term. Is there great risk at current levels? Well that all depends on how much one is considering purchasing. In our view the upside potential is greater than the downside risk, though we like to extract as much profit potential as we can before purchasing.
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