http://www.illuminatisilver.comToday is Saturday 14th November 2015 and we are briefly covering the worrying state of Glencore Mining.
Glencore is a strange hybrid company, both a commodities trader and a mining company, and it has a complicated balance sheet heavily burdened with different types of debt. For Glencore, the big issue is with mining, specifically copper mining.
Glencore’s share price fell last Thursday by 7.64 percent, to just under 96 pence and again on Friday to just over 93 pence. Its lowest price this year was 68.62 pence which was achieved on September 28th, but quickly climbed back and managed to stay around £1.15 level for October.
Richard Knights, a mining analyst at Liberum Capital, told Bloomberg. “It’s very geared into the copper price …. Prices are obviously taking a hit on the back of U.S. dollar strength and the Fed’s clear intention to raise rates before the end of the year.”
Glencore has been making big changes aimed at reducing its debt load, and reaffirmed these plans in its third-quarter results, released on 4th November. It is aiming to cut its debt to the low $20 billions level by the end of 2016, and will cut 455,000 tonnes of copper production by the end of 2017 due to low copper prices. The miner is also restricting zinc production to 500,000 tonnes per year and lead production to 100,000 tonnes per year of “until such time that prices return to sustainably higher levels.”
In early October the Bank of America released a report suggesting that Glencore’s troubles could have more far-reaching effects. In it, the firm points out that the company’s debt and trade deals have a higher-than-expected level of risk, noting that “many banks may now be more carefully reviewing their exposure to the commodities complex.”
Investor sentiment has been low in the mining space in 2015, and the downfall of larger names cannot be helping matters. That said, Deutsche Bank has raised the stock to a “hold” position and has upped its target price for Glencore to £2.
Market Watch stated “Glencore still needs to rebuild its relationship and trust with equity investors. However, the rapid debt reduction plans should remove the balance sheet and trading fears that have overly impacted the share price,” the firm said. “We believe that the company has now demonstrated that its liquidity position is safe and that its debt reduction plan is likely to exceed expectations” it added.
Barclays Bank is also positive on Glencore. It argues that the market has gone overboard on dumping Glencore bonds, because they're trading at ranges that would look reasonable if copper fell to around $2 per lb, when it's currently trading about 10% higher than that. “It's a rare mispricing from a market, and a possible opportunity.” it states.
Copper stood at Fridays close at $2.19
Other companies are also feeling the pain of lower commodity prices and these include Freeport McMoRan (the world’s largest publicly traded copper mining company, which is down 62% over the past year. BHP Billiton is down 40% on the New York Stock Exchange over the same period.
Is Glencore an opportunity or a risk? Only you can be the judge of that.
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