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FED, Gold, Silver, Interest rates and Markets 2016 Video

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FED, Gold, Silver, Interest rates and Markets 2016

Today is Sunday 11th December 2016 and we are expressing our view on the forthcoming FED interest rate decision due on 14th December and its likely impact on gold and silver prices.

The overwhelming consensus in financial markets is that on 14th of December, interest rates will rise in the US by 0.25% to a target range of 0.5%-0.75%.

If we think back to the last time the FED raised rates, which was in December 2015, it forecast that 4 rate rises were likely to occur during 2016. Stock markets fell and the price of gold then began to rise from $1049 to $1274 within 3 months and peaked in July at $1370 while silver rose from approximately $13.58 to $17.85 by April, then peaking at $20.71 in early August; for it became clear that the 4, and then amended 2 interest rate rises, were not going to occur. Despite gold and silver prices now having fallen back somewhat, they are still some 11% and 25% higher than they were 12 months ago.

There are in our view 4 main reasons why the FED is likely to raise rates again this week:

1. The economy has created on average 188,000 new jobs per month since last year with the unemployment rate falling from 5% - 4.6% the lowest rate recorded since August 2007. Hawks argue that participation has reached its limit, so little slack remains in the labour market. Firms, large and small, list hiring difficulties among their top concerns and fewer workers were laid off or fired in September than in any month since data started being collected.

2. Wage and price inflation. Although hourly wages are only about 2.5% higher than a year ago, Researchers at the San Francisco Fed have suggested that a slew of retirements by baby-boomers on large salaries are dragging this average down. Without this anomaly, the median hourly pay rise is running at 3.9% - almost as generous as in 2007.

Although price inflation, is not as yet at the Fed’s 2% target level it is getting closer. Excluding food and energy, prices are 1.7% higher than a year ago, up from 1.4% at the end of 2015

3. Congress will probably cut taxes next year under a Trump Presidency. Higher rates may be needed to stop any fiscal stimulus becoming too inflationary.

4. To save face. For the FED to maintain at least some degree of integrity, it has to raise rates - to forecast 4 rises and actually produce none bodes ill of its economic forecasting, and too much emphasis has been made by Janet Yellen in recent weeks about this possibility for it now not to occur.

So our view is somewhat contrary, in that there may indeed be a small bounce in gold and silver prices towards the end of next week and possibly a slight dip in stock market levels. However, caveat withstanding, we still see precious metal prices continuing to decline and the stock markets resume their rise– even though historic odds are against this from occurring. Could we be wrong, absolutely, but our political antennae twitches that the current Administration wishes to see no collapse on its watch and that nothing but good economic news being forecast before the current President leaves Office. Just call us cynical!

Please view our recent videos:

Gold and Silver Update w/e 9th December 2016
https://youtu.be/1QX6134XbPU

Why Silver May Outshine Gold (cont.)
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https://youtu.be/DaOKkkEn-Ug

Financial Armageddon – The Final Days
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Gold and Silver Update w/e 2nd December 2016
https://youtu.be/umsN65DhPgc

2016 Competition for our Gold and Silver forecasters
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Our Motivation for this channel – illuminati silver explains
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