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China Economic Collapse 2018 - Is it likely?
Today is Monday 8th October 2018 and we are discussing China and its supposed imminent collapse.
A month ago we produced a video titled Emerging Market Collapse and a week ago one entitled China - Bond Collapse and Tariffs - Influence on gold and silver prices – we strongly urge you to listen to them if you haven’t already done so please.
China - Bond Collapse and Tariffs - Influence on gold and silver prices
https://youtu.be/zGW5Gu7G9boEmerging Market Collapse – why are Gold & Silver prices affected?
https://youtu.be/ukN9Xl9LIhAHowever we wish in this video to focus again on China but from a slightly different angle. You will notice on You Tube a spate of videos stating that China is about to collapse economically. Now we are old enough and frankly experienced enough to remember 20 – 30 years ago when China was then seen as an emerging market and was the place that Unit Trust and Investment Trust managers were encouraging investors to place their money. Then there was a blip and the total financial annihilation of China was predicted and so funds would exodus it but nevertheless it continued to grow and prosper at unbelievably high GDP rates for the following 30 years or so. Personally, as a young investment adviser, I remember advising clients to include China funds as part of an investment portfolio, as although it was high risk then, it would certainly provide significant growth potential taking the long term in view – which is exactly what happened I am pleased to say.
However today may be somewhat different. While China was an emerging market it presented wonderful opportunities for companies to invest in and also to obtain or manufacture products cheaply. As it grew and became more financially sophisticated, it also became an ideal depository, or purchaser if you wish, for Western Debt instruments and especially US dollar denominated assets and bonds. However, in recent years China has become a threat to dollar hegemony. It now forms part of the International SDR or Special Drawing Rights and is the second largest economy in the world – second to the US and economists predict that it won’t be long before it surpasses the US. It also negotiates trading deals with other countries for commodities which do not necessarily involve the use of the dollar which is threatening.
The US desperately needs to export its goods and to increase its own GDP which is Why President Trump and his administration is focussing on a High risk but some extent understandable US 1st Economic policy – casting aside any of the political undertones and benefits associated with that.
So what are we witnessing is this. Emerging markets which took on huge amounts of US debt, cannot afford its prepayments as the dollar value has increased thereby ironically their investors are removing funds from these markets and putting them into either US Treasuries or Stocks – thereby shoring up the dollar further (note greater reliance on the dollar) and China with the trade tariffs and their own consequential economic growth issues, are themselves printing money to shore up their own internal infrastructure thereby reducing the value of their own currency.
We are already witnessing turmoil in China Stocks markets. Today for example China's stock markets fell more than 3.7% after the country's central bank announced measures to prop up the economy amid an ongoing trade war with the United States.
Yesterday, the People's Bank of China announced it would be cutting the amount of cash that banks have to hold as reserves from Oct. 15th – in a bid to spur investment.
So what is going to happen. Well short term there will be turmoil.
China believes in its own supreme World economic dominance – and as tariffs will hurt the US too believes that the US has more to lose than it does and after all US Business generally being responsible to shareholders by definition have to look after short term interests while China prepares 25, 50 and 100 year plans.
Let us not under-estimate either the damage it could do to the US and world economies, but dollar hegemony is essential to the future of US supremacy and once this is lost, then its all over for Western dominance and power will shift inexorably to the East.
Look out for and beware of future turmoil. Its far from over and neither the US nor China are going to collapse tomorrow – but this will be an ongoing battle – temporarily adjusted by interim agreements – but the war is ultimately who will control the world from 2050 onwards – the West or the East? – and this is why long term we are confident about gold and silver prices.
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