John Kolovos, CMT, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, makes his Real Vision debut with technical trades on the S&P 500, oil and palladium. He explains why he thinks the stock market has more room to run, considers important chart patterns and indicators to keep an eye on for commodities, and reviews how to make the plays, in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on May 1, 2019.
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https://rvtv.io/2xbskqx Technical Take on the S&P and Commodities (w/ John Kolovos) | Trade Ideas
https://www.youtube.com/c/RealVisionTelevisionTranscript:
For the full transcript:
https://rvtv.io/2JcWRepWelcome to Real Vision's Trade Ideas. Today we're sitting down with John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors. Great to have you here.
Thank you for having me.
Now this is your first time on Real Vision. Could you give us a little bit of your background and what you do at Macro Risk Advisors?
Sure. I've been doing this for about 20 years now as a technical strategist. Early on in my career, I was at Lehman Brothers. Found my way over to ISI Group. And during that beginning part of my career, I developed trading strategies based off of trend momentum and sentiment. Later on, I found myself on the buy side, most recently at Fidelity up in Boston where I was their global technical strategist, working very closely with the portfolio managers up there, whether it be portfolio analytics or helping with stock selection ideas.
Currently I'm at Macro Risk Advisors as their chief technical strategist. And what we do at Macro Risk Advisors-- first of all, we're based here in New York. And we are a boutique derivatives broker dealer where we have multiple disciplines in terms of the strategies that we offer. So we have energy strategy. We have technical strategy. We also have quant and derivative strategies.
So you're mostly focused on the technical side of things.
Oh yeah, for sure. Yeah.
Great. So what's your trade idea for today?
Well, I think a good way to start would just to have a discussion about equity markets. I think stocks are in a secular advance. So if you think about what that means, that's a structural, a multi-decade bull market. We're in that. The low is '09. When we broke out in 2013, that confirmed that we are in a long term bull market. So if we frame everything in that regard, then stock should be higher over time.
So my first trade's going to be around what I think the S&P is going to do this year. I do think the S&P 500 gets up to 3065.
OK, so what are the technicals that you're looking at specifically there?
Right. So first, let's take another step back. 2018 was a cyclical bear market. That decline had all the markings of what a bear market looks like. You had significant internal deterioration. We eventually saw the end with a panic bottom.
Coming out of that low to make the distinction between being it being a bull market rally or a bear market rally, you need to look for breadth. And I'm a huge proponent of looking at breadth
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