http://illuminatisilver.comhttp://facebook.com/illuminatisilverStock Markets Recover and Gold Prices fall back after a Trump Victory – why?
Today is Thursday 10th November 2016 and we address the issue as to why stock markets have recovered and gold prices fallen back a day or so after a Trump victory.
Despite a Trump Presidential win, Asian share markets have surged back after Wednesday's sharp sell-off.
Many, including us, expected a market fall and it did not materialise but for a few hours. Yesterday:
• Dow Jones ended the day up by 1.4%.
• The S&P 500 was up 1.11%
• Nasdaq was also up by 1.11%
• Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 6.7%, more than recovering
losses from the previous session.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 2.1%
• Australia's ASX index up 3.3%.
• France's Cac index and Germany's Dax both closed about
1.5% higher after erasing losses of more than 2%.
• In London the FTSE 100 index dropped 2% at the start of
trading, before recovering to end the day 1% up.
The US dollar also rose throughout the day and continued to make gains in Asia this morning with the dollar index now standing at 98.5
Well at first it did with markets and the dollar falling and precious metal prices rising. However, the reversal is down in our opinion to three key factors:
1. Trump after winning, gave a conciliatory speech thereby suggesting that perhaps as President he won’t be quite as radical as feared from his robust campaigning.
2. He does not take office until 20th January 2017 so, for the moment, policy is same as usual and remember, and we are being just a little conspiratorial here, we are coming up to Christmas Bonus time and such bonuses are only paid out if trading has been healthy and generally markets have risen – so there is a built in impetus to keep talking the markets up within the trade.
3. No-one actually knows what Trump’s policies are yet in terms of detail, and so it is difficult for the markets to gauge their effect; after all a number of economists and analysts do not believe that Trump can actually implement much of what he has said. Once these details are known, then we will see the true reactions of the markets.
There are of course other factors, however we wish to issue to our subscribers and listeners a word of caution. The higher the markets go over the next few months, the further they can fall when sentiment changes, especially if Trump does put into effect some of the harsh measures, which will be necessary, to achieve what he claims he wishes to achieve. So for now, and until his inauguration, we may witness some gains, but be sure in the early stages of a Trump Presidency we also expect some pain. So any fall in precious metal prices should, in our opinion, be seen as an opportunity for those whose portfolio is light to redress that balance.
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