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Positive Expectancy: The Power of an Edge. How Profitable is your Trading Strategy?
http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Trade-risk-size.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! Once we accept that the outcome of trades is random i.e. accept that any one trade carries risk. We know that we cannot stake too much on any one trade because we don't know with certainty that any one trade will work.
Coping with Trading Psychology - Trade Expectancy. To carry on with the thought from the previous lesson, we have to acknowledge that the outcome of any particular trade is random, even though it may be expected to be one way or the other. It’s important to maintain this mindset when you’re trading. If you pin too much hope on one trade then you may become despondent if it doesn’t work out; on the other hand you could become elated and think you have finally “cracked it” because you have a succession of wins, and this too can be dangerous because you think that everything you touch is golden; but the market will let you down at the most inconvenient moment.
So what should you do? The best thing to aim for is to execute each trade to the best of your ability, sticking to your current strategy. If your execution is according to your strategy, then count it as a win whether or not you finish up making money. In essence, you should pay little attention to how much money you’re making and just make sure that you trade well, as outlined in this context. If you trade well and your strategy is sound, then the money will come.
Of course there is a caveat to this. Markets change, and success in the past is no guarantee of success in the future using the same strategy. However, back testing does have a place in refining what you’re doing, you just have to realize that you may be chasing a moving target. What you need to do, once you think you have worked out a strategy that gives you an edge, is stick with it long enough to exercise it fully and to be sure how it will work out. You can’t have doubts in the strategy after two or three losses in a row, and try to change it on the fly, as that never works out well.
If your strategy really isn’t working out, then you should take your trading journal and do some analysis when you’re off-line. With sound principles, you probably only need to tweak what you’re looking at in order to turn it back into a winning strategy, but you must do it coolly and with forethought rather than rashly in the heat of trading.
When you’re looking at strategies, you must remember that markets exhibit different characteristics and can change. Volatility, trend, and other factors may influence which strategies you employ, and you would do well not to try and force an otherwise successful strategy onto a market where the conditions have changed. Knowing when to employ different strategies is one of the skills that you will develop as you trade.
Once again, you should rarely if ever focus on the amount of money you are winning or losing. Your task is to make sure that you execute your trades in accordance with your plan, and in the longer term review the plan if things aren’t working out or start becoming less successful.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEfCZf-CRuYRisk Management: Accepting RISK in Trading 👊
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC2KserZ838Be More Focused During the Trading Day by Using Alerts
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